What to Expect from Derek Jeter in 2012

Derek Jeter struggled mightily in the first half of 2011. He batted .270 before the All-Star break and, worse, slugged only .353. Sportswriters called for his demotion to the bottom of the Yankees order, and mournful fans prepared to acknowledge the end of The Captain's illustrious career. 

Then came July 9 and Jeter's 3,000th hit, a deep home run to left-field that highlighted a 5-5 day at the plate. It was his third home run and 16th extra-base hit of the season (he would also collect his 17th, a double, later that afternoon) but more importantly, the beginning of a new season.

Derek Jeter flourished magnificently in the second half of 2012. He batted .327 after the All-Star break and, better, slugged .428. Sportswriters hailed his worthiness of batting atop the Yankees order, and overjoyed fans geared up for another chapter of The Captain's illustrious career.

And so 2012 begins with guarded optimism for Jeter. We hope that he will continue off his second half momentum but are aware that, while the 12-time All-Star may have staved off decline for a few more months, most 37-year olds are closer to retirement than they are to their primes. Jeter hit .388 on balls in play during the second half of 2011, well above his career average of .355, after posting only a .294 BABIP before the All-Star break. Since variation in BABIP is usually attributed to luck more than anything, it's safe to predict that 2012 Derek Jeter will hit safely somewhere between his pre- and post- All-Star break rate.

More concerning to Jeter and the Yankees is the total depletion of the shortstop's power. Isolated Slugging (ISO) is calculated by subtracting hits from total bases and measures a hitter's ability to knock extra-base hits. Jeter's .092 ISO in 2011 was easily the lowest of his career, supporting the anecdotal evidence of his inability to get past first base in one swing. Ignoring the seemingly anomalous 2009 season (.131 ISO, 3rd in MVP voting), Jeter's ISO has dropped every year since 2004, which is to be expected from an aging ball-player but which augurs poorly moving forward.

There's also the issue of Jeter's defense, which has always scored poorly in advanced defensive metrics. Over the last two years alone, Jeter has produced -2.2 defensive WAR according to baseball-reference.com, and the lack of range this figure reports fuels the suggestion that his days as a middle-infielder are numbered (although it's worth noting that Jeter's dWAR totals were at least as ugly in his prime). Eduardo Nunez doesn't look like the answer at shortstop defensively, but the moment a credible replacement for Jeter emerges, expect heightened calls for the veteran's removal from the position he has played exclusively in his big league career.

Despite the abounding questions facing Jeter and the Yankees, Mr. November will be stationed between second and third base and atop the batting order to begin 2012, looking to prove that he still has much to contribute to the Yankees on the field. How long he remains in his comfortable and prestigious slots depends on which 2011 Jeter proves closer to the real one. Here's hoping he hits like it's August 2011 and not like it's June. Long live Derek Jeter.