Let's start with that revamped rotation. Who's the X-Factor here?
Alex: I'm happy to say that I think this rotation is deep enough to be without a true X-factor. Assuming that Sabathia pitches like the ace he is, the Yankees have three guys who could be legitimate number-two starters if all breaks right. Pineda struggling like he did during the second half of last year wouldn't be crippling as long as Nova and Kuroda pitch well. Nova could suffer a sophomore slump and Kuroda could have trouble adjusting to Yankee Stadium and the New York pressure, but neither would be devastating if the rest of the rotation meets expectations. And if Hughes gets hit, Garcia and Pettitte are waiting around to take his place. The Yankees don't need career years from everyone. They'll be fine as long as all of those guys don't all under-perform simultaneously. It's a true credit to Cashman that the rotation is so sound after being so fragile only a few months ago.
Michael: Absolutely, it's amazing how quickly a weakness became a strength. It also takes a lot of pressure off of Pineda to be the X Factor, assuming we take Sabathia for granted. Then again, we know Pineda will be booed if he doesn't perform, especially if Montero hits well in Seattle. That's New York for you...some pitchers thrive, and as we know all too well, others falter. Only time will tell how Michael and Hiroki respond.
Alex: There are certainly a lot of variables that affect any baseball season, and no matter the talent a team is always prone to injuries and unexpected ineffectiveness (just ask our buddies from Beantown), but it's been a while since I've been this confident on opening day. Unlike last year, when we kind of knew all along that the Yankees pitching wasn't World Series-worthy, the 2012 Bombers seem to lack any glaring flaws. They have their usually impressive line-up, one of the five or six best rotations in baseball, an adequate bench, and a strong bullpen. Things can always go wrong of course, but I really like how the Yanks look right now.
Michael: Even I can't help but feel good about 2012, and I'm always cautious as to not jinx the Yankees. They haven't been this strong in every area for the last few seasons.
During last season, I always felt that Rodriguez and Teixeira are the biggest difference-makers in this stacked lineup. A-Rod was too injury-plagued in 2011 to make a big impact, only playing in 99 games. While he's getting up there in years, I still consider him one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball. Tex has kept his power numbers up, but he has become too much of an all-or-nothing hitter from the left side. I might as well add Granderson to the mix. I'm taking Cano for granted.
Alex: Like in the starting rotation, I think the Yankees have enough lineup strength to withstand a bad year from a guy or two. I'm expecting some sort of regression from Granderson, but hopefully A-Rod can stay on the field and Teixeira can bounce back from last year. If one of those guys can regain his old form that takes the line-up to a different level. I think Jeter is somewhat of a wild card. He's going to bat first whether he deserves to or not, so he's going to need to get on base to avoid leaving an ugly hole atop the order.
Michael: It's a luxury that this team has, in both the hitting and pitching department, but I'm greedy. As you alluded to, if everything goes right, this lineup is probably best in the league.
I don't like Jeter at the top, I'd rather have Gardner leading off. That's just a pipe dream though. The lineup will probably look like:
Jeter SS
Granderson CF
Cano 2B
Rodriguez 3B
Teixeira 1B
Swisher RF
Ibanez/Jones DH
Martin C
Gardner LF
Alex: Jeter can hold his own against lefties (.349/.423/.523) but struggles pretty mightily against righties (.277/.329/.338), and I think the line-up should reflect those splits. I think if politics weren't an issue Jeter would lead off against lefties and bat 7th or 8th against righties. You have the Ibanez/Jones DH platoon batting 7th, but my expectations are very low for that pair, especially Ibanez. I don't really want my DH posting a 91 OPS+ as he did last year. It's also worth noting that, since A-Rod, Jeter, and Teixeira are going to be getting semi-consistent half-days off, Chavez and Nunez will be filling out the order almost as much as Ibanez and Jones, playing the field while the regulars DH.
Michael: It's almost a blessing from the sky that Montero was traded away, or else the DH spot would be clogged for a large part of the games. Now, it can be a position where each of the vets can be spelled once in a while.
I'm not crazy about the bench, but we do have some useful players. A super-utility man would be convenient; Nunez is the closest we have to one of them.
I'm not crazy about the bench, but we do have some useful players. A super-utility man would be convenient; Nunez is the closest we have to one of them.
Alex: We've got to hope Nunez is out taking ground balls right now, because he's a decent glove away from being a good MLB player. The bat is there for a middle-infielder, but he can't field, and if he ends up moving to the outfield, as some think is inevitable, his hitting loses all value. Still a helpful guy to have around though. The rest of the guys on the bench (besides Cervelli) are up there in age and provide little in the field. I don't see any sort of late-game defensive replacement anywhere on this roster, unless they choose to carry only 11 pitchers, which doesn't seem likely. Then again, if the lack of a defensive-oriented bench player is your team's biggest concern, you're in pretty good shape.
Michael: I was thinking the same thing. I look up and down the roster and see strengths all around, and bench is obviously the last aspect of a team that a general manager should try to improve.
I'm looking at this bullpen and thinking, "Damn, if Soriano pitches somewhat like he used to, the back of this bullpen is insanely good." It could be 1996 all over again, with a near-lock to win the game with the lead after six innings. Many say that the bullpen is overrated, but I find a lock-down back-end to be a great luxury to have. Lefties are my only concern, as Logan and Rapada are less-than-desireable. Luckily, Robertson was better against lefties last season than righties. If I were Girardi, I'd sometimes move Robertson out of the eight inning in order to face lefty-heavy parts of the order. I don't really see him doing that, though.
Michael: I was thinking the same thing. I look up and down the roster and see strengths all around, and bench is obviously the last aspect of a team that a general manager should try to improve.
I'm looking at this bullpen and thinking, "Damn, if Soriano pitches somewhat like he used to, the back of this bullpen is insanely good." It could be 1996 all over again, with a near-lock to win the game with the lead after six innings. Many say that the bullpen is overrated, but I find a lock-down back-end to be a great luxury to have. Lefties are my only concern, as Logan and Rapada are less-than-desireable. Luckily, Robertson was better against lefties last season than righties. If I were Girardi, I'd sometimes move Robertson out of the eight inning in order to face lefty-heavy parts of the order. I don't really see him doing that, though.
Alex: I agree that the bullpen is a strength, but relievers are fickle, and it's no guarantee Robertson repeats 2011. Then again, Soriano should only improve after adjustment to New York. I still think that was a terrible signing, but he makes the 'pen better this year.
What we need to remember, in relation to the bullpen and to all other aspects of the team, is that things don't usually go as planned. Guys get hurt, have bad years, decline sooner than expected. Before last year you wouldn't have expected Granderson to out-hit Teixeira or Garcia to out-pitch Hughes. We can figure the team out, identify strengths and weaknesses, and make predictions, but things will inevitably turn out opposite of what we expect.
That said, I have to ask, what do you see as the fate of the 2012 Yankees? How many games will they win, and how far into the playoffs will they go?
Michael: I feel terrible when we talk so well about this team. Kina Hora! To add to that, you're killing me, Alex. They improved, while the other AL East teams didn't take big steps forward. They won the division last season, so...
I can't say how far they go, but I will be disappointed if this team can't get out of the first round. I probably speak for both of us when I say that only a championship will make us content. All I will say is that I believe this team has a better chance than they've had in the past two seasons.
Maybe you're not as cautious as I to anger the baseball gods. What do you see in store for 2012?
What we need to remember, in relation to the bullpen and to all other aspects of the team, is that things don't usually go as planned. Guys get hurt, have bad years, decline sooner than expected. Before last year you wouldn't have expected Granderson to out-hit Teixeira or Garcia to out-pitch Hughes. We can figure the team out, identify strengths and weaknesses, and make predictions, but things will inevitably turn out opposite of what we expect.
That said, I have to ask, what do you see as the fate of the 2012 Yankees? How many games will they win, and how far into the playoffs will they go?
Michael: I feel terrible when we talk so well about this team. Kina Hora! To add to that, you're killing me, Alex. They improved, while the other AL East teams didn't take big steps forward. They won the division last season, so...
I can't say how far they go, but I will be disappointed if this team can't get out of the first round. I probably speak for both of us when I say that only a championship will make us content. All I will say is that I believe this team has a better chance than they've had in the past two seasons.
Maybe you're not as cautious as I to anger the baseball gods. What do you see in store for 2012?
Alex: I feel pretty comfortable saying they're the best team in the division. But the playoffs are largely a crap-shoot, and the American League has a lot of great teams. A division series match-up with the Angels, Rangers, or Tigers is a really scary proposition, especially since all three of those teams have knocked the Yankees out of the playoffs at least once in the last decade. So I'm going to refrain from a concrete prediction, while saying that this team absolutely has the potential to win the World Series. I'm not so fanatical that I'll be angry with anything less, but title number 28 is clearly a reasonable goal.
Michael: I'll be real. They aren't head-and-shoulders above everyone else as they were in 2009. I can't even call them the best team in the American League. I don't really know how to say this; I can't predict them to win it all, but I can't hope for anything less.
Opening Day is April 6th, and we're as ecstatic as ever to see the Bronx Bombers in action again.
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